“Trump (49%) edges Harris (45%) among independents who are likely to vote. Trump is doing better among independents than he did in the 2020 election (44%), according to the 2020 Exit Poll,” Marist said. “Harris underperforms the support President Joe Biden received among this voting group in 2020 (52%).”

The state’s closely watched Senate race shows a similarly tight contest, and 93 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote.